- Projected Revenue and Basic Concepts Brief (Farrell and Breen, 2017)
- Social Perspectives on a Potential State Lottery (Farrell, 2017)
Abstract, Part 1:
In assessing the potential lottery revenue for the State of Mississippi, there are a multitude of factors to contemplate in understanding the difficulty in coming to any consensus of potential revenue. Often referred to as a corollary due to the difficulties in measurement, one must consider the impact of such a lottery on vulnerable populations, state services to those populations, competing industries and the impact on not only those industries but also those regions, and the political impacts on short and long-term budgeting and funding inconsistencies. This brief will address a few of the very many ways one could project revenue from implementation of a lottery. Unlike most public revenue projections, lotteries are almost impossible to come to any full understanding of how the economic conditions, populations and lotteries themselves interact year to year and over-time.
In addition to each state choosing which lottery games it incorporates, there are the variables of prize percentage allocation, alternatives such as casinos, private and public administration, multi-state games, state demographics, national economic trends, proximity to other lottery states, and citizen adoption of designated lottery proceeds; this to name just a few influences on the success of each state’s lottery. Projecting what Mississippi might be able to expect, we want to look at some comparable state demographics to hold against to overall totals when making projections, we want to discuss the utter unpredictability of demographics on the models, introduce the data and describe the purpose for each data set to be utilized for the projections and then describe each projection. The brief concludes with a narrative on revenue and allocation and some lessons learned from the research to be considered before any attempt to implement a lottery…